The EU+ received around 332,000 applications for international protection in the first half of 2026, 17% fewer than during the same period in 2025. Afghans lodged approximately 39,000 applications. Venezuelans ranked second with around 33,000, and 93% of Venezuelan applications were filed in Spain. The overall first-instance recognition rate was 31%.

Those figures matter for Latin American applicants because, since 12 June 2026, the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum has been applying a new procedural framework. Under Regulation (EU) 2024/1348, certain applicants from nationalities with an EU-wide recognition rate of 20% or lower may be placed in accelerated procedures and, where the legal conditions apply, border procedures.

The 20% rule does not mean “automatic rejection”

The recognition-rate threshold affects procedure. It does not determine the legal merits of every claim. The Regulation itself recognises that the national average may not accurately reflect the protection needs of a particular category of applicants.

That safeguard is especially relevant for people whose risk is linked to sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, political activity, gender-based violence, human-rights work or other individual circumstances.

Venezuela shows why the statistics must be read carefully

The EUAA reported an EU-level recognition rate of roughly 2% for Venezuelan applicants in 2025. On its face, that number appears extremely low. But the Agency also explains that Spain granted national forms of protection to many Venezuelans who did not receive refugee status or subsidiary protection. Those permits are not counted as positive international-protection decisions in the EU recognition-rate calculation.

This means the statistic should not be read as a simple measure of whether return is safe. It measures a specific legal outcome across the EU system.

LGBTQ+ applicants may face risks the country average does not capture

Regulation (EU) 2024/1347 requires consideration of individual circumstances and expressly recognises gender, gender identity and sexual orientation as potentially relevant factors. For LGBTQ+ applicants, authorities must examine the actual pattern of persecution, the availability of effective state protection and the consequences of return.

An applicant’s file may therefore need to document threats, assaults, police abuse, family or community violence, political targeting, discrimination of sufficient severity, prior attempts to seek state protection and country information specific to the relevant LGBTQ+ population.

Zackary Elías Morales: a nationality is not a case file

Zackary Oriel Elías Morales, a trans rights activist, Director of Asociación Silueta X and human-rights advocate, emphasises that nationality-wide data and individual protection are different legal questions. Two people from the same country can face radically different levels of risk because of identity, visibility, activism, past violence or access to meaningful state protection.

Non-refoulement remains central

The principle of non-refoulement remains a core limit on return. Neither a falling number of asylum applications nor a low recognition rate eliminates the duty to examine whether removal would expose an individual to persecution or serious harm protected under international or European law.

Country letters, reports and institutional documentation can support that assessment, but they cannot guarantee asylum. The decision remains with the competent authorities and, where applicable, the courts.